The Bigger Picture

It took me awhile to get the bigger picture of the sudden political heat in Kenya. My pal kept prodding me not to think of Kibaki and Raila but of the folks who have all to lose if the constitution implementation goes as planned and the ICC process is not derailed. Finally I think I have got it.

Let’s begin at the beginning. On Dec 17 2010, Moreno Ocampo named six men who are accused of bearing the greatest responsibility. From that day, reforms, doing things for good of Kenya and been patriotic were all thrown out of the window.  The folk named were apparently bigger than Kenya and name of the game changed to their preservation at the expense of Kenya and Kenyans.

Enter into the picture KKK, which is a loose grouping of Kikuyus, Kambas and Kalejins fronted by Uhuru, Ruto and Kalonzo. It is instructive to note that KKK has two of the six ICC suspects as its key proponents and the third as a puppet who is intrinsically opportunistic and malleable. KKK wants to evade justice by all means. It also wants to keep the dragon of impunity alive in Kenya.

Due to media attention and backlash from the public as a result of its explicit tribalism KKK went underground. Its leaders completely distanced themselves from it and in typically Kenyan fashion we presumed that was the end of the ugly tribal grouping. Apparently KKK just went underground and it is now engaging in even more dangerous tactics.

Remember the bigger picture is to save the ICC six from The Hague. Kenya can burn but these six have to be saved.

Plan A – Lobby African states for the deferral of the ICC case with the rider that Kenya is reforming its judiciary and will be able to try the post election violence suspects. This is been done by Kalonzo’s shuttle diplomacy. The Judiciary must be malleable enough to aid the process so of course Kibaki had to appoint ‘his’ judges to the posts and ignore Raila’s views. It was then expected that Raila would in a fit of anger leave the coalition and Kibaki would ‘be forced’ to call a snap election. KKK then presumes they will win the snap election and thus became immune to prosecution or arrest like Bashir is.

Plan B – This is just a variation of Plan A. Since Raila did not leave the coalition, PNU has asked to leave the coalition.

Plan C – A censure motion against the Prime Minister or a vote of no confidence against the PM.

Whatever happens at the end of this episode of the endless drama, this is a win for the KKK side. Either, the coalition falls apart and snap elections called or their judges get approved and politics takes centre stage with reforms been placed on the back burner.

Just for the record, in no way do I think Raila’s side is comprised of angels BUT the unholy alliance of KKK in its bid to save themselves from The Hague is willing to burn Kenya. They currently believe that Raila is at his weakest and thus are going for his jugular in the belief that they can amass numbers in Parliament and also in a snap election.  It is dangerous ground and we are as usual blinded by the ODM v PNU or Kibaki v Raila and cannot see the high stakes chess games been played.

Regarding the appointees:

Justice Vishram has presided over high profile libel cases and the case against Royal Media Services in the late 90s. In those cases he ruled harshly against the media and thus I do have questions regarding his views on a free press.

Kioko Kilukomi until last week was William Ruto’s lawyer. Enough said.

Prof Githu Muigai is an expert on ICC procedures and has allegedly been advising the government regarding the ICC case.

William Kirwa left the Agricultural Development Corporation under unclear circumstances regarding mismanagement of funds. How then can he be Controller of Budget?

So in my view, they may have amazing academic credentials but in the matter of conflict of interest it appears they do not pass muster.

Less than six months after promulgation of the new constitution which heralded the beginning of a new dawn for Kenya finds itself again at crossroads.

The constant in this endless drama appears to be pea-size brained politicians who are hell bent on self-preservation.

For how long shall 40 million Kenyans be at their mercy?


UPDATE: After the circus in the Parliamentary committees, Speaker Marende finally declared the nominations unconstitutional. President Kibaki then broke his silence and insisted that the nominations were constitutional. In the midst of these there are rumors of Marende been impeached!

Next week will definitely be explosive in the political scene unfortunately to no value-add to the ordinary Kenyan.

Read this anonymous comment somewhere online and it wholly captured my feelings:

‘The Constitution is not for Raila, Kibaki, Uhuru or Ruto . Let’s force these people to follow the right and sincere process. No interest attached to any name. Advertise the jobs, shortlist the names by respective professional bodies, forward names to Raila and Kibaki, forward chosen names to Marende, take it to Parliament, THE END. If not take process back to the origin. Don’t nominate friends of Raila, don’t take lawyers of Ruto, don’t settle on advisors of Uhuru.

We want transparency and not tribalism, impunity, side-road nominations.

Kibaki, Raila, Ruto, Uhuru are not Kenya.’

Enough said!!!!





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